I’ve seen this very interesting White Paper twitted by my ex-manager at Sanoma (@caroberry) issued together by Atos Consulting and Ericsson. They treat TIME (Telecom, IT, Media & Entertainment) industry and picture 4 scenarios (with associated Business Models, based on Alexander Osterwalder and Yves Pigneur’s Business Model Canvas) for 2020. It is very interesting in a DiCoDE perspective because they tackle the exact same industries: Media, Telecom and User Interface (device).
Of course, being Atos Consulting and Ericsson, their focus is on IT infrastructures and systems and some statements and predictions are, imho, biased by the prime audience of their paper: their existing clients. But this White Paper is very interesting and I invite you to download it for free to make your own idea!
Here’s my take:
Scenario 1 – Brands & Pipes: To me, this is the most likely scenario where both BRANDS (Media and User Interface players) deliver the most value. Telecom Universe is just a PIPE that didn’t succeed expanding to the other universes, even though having tried. This is the scenario that sticks the best to DiCoDE as I created it
Scenario 2 – User’s Choice: Here, Telecom plays a CURATOR role towards customer, managing their relationship. As I blogged several times, this is the scenarios that, finally, carriers are trying to implement, but I think they lost already customer TRUST and are not currently staffed for such roles. Remember they all wanted to outsource Customer Service to emerging countries a few years ago to cut costs… In this scenario, Media only delivers SERVICES and don’t succeed to capture Customer Relationship. This is also unlikely as Media are re-inventing and adapting themselves faster than Carriers.
Finally, in this scenario, UI players are commoditized through STANDARDIZATION and under Carrier’s control. We see recently (and I highlight it in DiCoDE – the present) that UI are taking over leadership (I call it Mayorship;o) of the ecosystems to Carriers.
Scenario 3 – Green Shift: Even though I really believe REGULATION is striking back and will be increasingly strong, I don’t think that Rise of Green Conscience will block innovation in TIME. Sustainability will be achieved not only by political power and public opinion, but mostly through TECHNOLOGY. So I believe technological actors, starting with UI players, will drive this Green Shift, mostly for economical reasons, rather than be slowed down by it.
Scenario 4 – All Inclusive: This scenario is close to the first one, except that here Regulation is PASSIVE. I don’t believe in such scenario because of the rise of Privacy and Rights issues. But INCORPORATION of Telecom by either Media, either UI players is still likely. It could happen via a commoditization of the connectivity role (which is unlikely seeing the expected demand in the coming years) or via technological INNOVATION. UI or Media could also LOCK-IN markets and thus have a better control over connectivity…
Conclusion: The 3 Key Elements of this White Paper are elements I already have on my list for DiCoDE – the book: TRUST, CONVENIENCE (Thanks, Forrester!) and PARTNERSHIPS